Municipal and Autonomous Elections in Spain 2023
The cycle change starts and it does so with the impetus of a tsunami. The bloc of the right led by the PP has been firmly imposed in most of Spain. The popular ones have been the first force in historical squares of socialism, signing a clear sorpasso that anticipates, with the support of Vox, either through government coalitions or through legislature agreements, a clear political turnaround, a possible prelude to what can be consecrated in December in the general elections. In the municipal elections, the PP has emerged victorious, collecting almost 750,000 more votes than the PSOE in the country as a whole and prevailing in the main cities. On the regional side, the Socialists only managed to maintain power in Castilla-La Mancha, Asturias and Navarra. In this last autonomy, María Chivite can repeat as president if she agrees again with Geroa Bai and also with Bildu.
In Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, although he lost two seats, retained an absolute majority. The Castilian baron from La Mancha thus becomes the most solid alternative to Pedro Sánchez if the PSOE is shipwrecked in the general polls in December. Page was only served by an absolute majority because in his territory he had no possibility of agreeing with any force on his left.
The PP, with Isabel Díaz Ayuso, has swept the Community of Madrid with an absolute majority, leaving Más Madrid and PSOE in second and third position but at a very long distance. The Socialists with Juan Lobato have fallen just over 5,000 votes away from giving Mónica García the sorpasso.
In Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, although he lost two seats, retained an absolute majority. The Castilian baron from La Mancha thus becomes the most solid alternative to Pedro Sánchez if the PSOE is shipwrecked in the general polls in December. Page was only served by an absolute majority because in his territory he had no possibility of agreeing with any force on his left.
The PP, with Isabel Díaz Ayuso, has swept the Community of Madrid with an absolute majority, leaving Más Madrid and PSOE in second and third position but at a very long distance. The Socialists with Juan Lobato have fallen just over 5,000 votes away from giving Mónica García the sorpasso.
In the Valencian Community and Aragon, with Carlos Mazón and Jorge Azcón leading the candidacies, the PP has been the most voted party with all the tricks in its hand to wrest the government from two of the four main PSOE barons, Ximo Puig and Javier Lamban. In these two autonomies, the popular will have to agree with Vox.
There will also have to be an agreement with those of Santiago Abascal in Extremadura. In this community, the popular have equaled in seats the socialist Guillermo Fernández Vara who governed until now with an absolute majority but who no longer has the possibility of repeating because the struggle between the two most extreme parties, Vox and Unidas Podemos, has ended in favor of the firsts.
Nor will Francina Armengol continue to lead the Balearic government. In this community, the PP has clearly positioned itself as the first force with Marga Prohens heading the list. With the backing of Vox, the tandem of the right far exceeds the absolute majority.
In Cantabria, the popular ones have managed to beat the PRC and the PSOE and are in a position to unseat Miguel Ángel Revilla with the help of the four seats won by Vox.
La Rioja will also come to be governed by the right and with an absolute majority. The PP has won the victory by presenting Gonzalo Capellán as a candidate for the presidency. The popular ones also recover the capital, Logroño, after four years of socialist mandate.
Despite the setback, the PSOE has shown its ability to resist. The collapse, in terms of power, has been largely due to the weakness of its left-wing partners: Unidas Podemos, divided and confronted, collapses in practically all territories. Nor has that of Compromís, the main ally of the Botànic Pact, which has allowed the PSOE to govern the Valencian Community since 2015, been a good result. The socialist Ximo Puig has improved his mark compared to the last elections but the push of the PP that has engulfed the vote of Ciudadanos and the collapse of his partner makes it impossible for him to reissue a third term.
On the contrary, the PP has been enormously benefited by the disappearance, clinical death in reality, of Ciudadanos. The popular ones have completely absorbed their votes, which has provided them with a decisive injection of strength.
Regarding the main cities, the right wing has taken Seville, Valladolid, Valencia and Palma de Mallorca away from the PSOE.
In the capital Madrid, the PP, with José Luis Martínez-Almeida, achieved an absolute majority. In this case, the popular ones have also monopolized the entire vote of Ciudadanos, a party that has practically disappeared from the electoral map. In the southern half of the country, the left only retains the cities of Jaén and Mérida. Martínez-Almeida, who in 2019 ousted Manuela Carmena with a losers' pact, now triumphs in full and Vox will not be necessary for governance.
In Barcelona city there has also been a ballot dance. The most voted force has been that of Trías (Junts), followed at a short distance by the PSC. The party of Ada Colau (En Comú) moves to third position and ERC is located at a considerable distance. Here the possibilities of agreement are several.
The Basque capitals, San Sebastián will foreseeable have to go through a PNV-PSE pact. In Vitoria, the agreements appear difficult with Bildu as the most voted force and in Bilbao, the PNV wins but without an absolute majority. Basque nationalists will have to choose between PSE or PP to govern the city.
All of this has led the Prime Minister to automatically dissolve the courts and call general elections for next July 23, an unusual date, since half of Spain will be on vacation
Historically, whoever wins the regional and municipal elections, when they are called in the same year, usually wins the general ones, so the expectations of the current president of the government are not good, and perhaps the call responds more to a personal need not to do self-criticism before his party, and become the candidate again, ignoring the primaries.
In any case, this unexpected announcement leaves some of the planned laws in the dark, which from now on will sleep the sleep of the just in a drawer until someone rescues them, such as the necessary Law on consumers and users, so necessary to stop the abuses of large corporations in the treatment of customer service, or the tripartite treaty on the future of Gibraltar, which at least will be delayed another year, due to the despair of the inhabitants of both sides of the border , which for now remains as it was.